4.60%, Unanimous (RBA Decision, 29 September 2026): The Fourth Hike of 2026 — and Why the Aussie Gave Back Its Gain Within the Hour

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% at 2:30pm AEST (04:30 UTC) on Tuesday 29 September 2026. The vote was unanimous, the move was about 90% priced, and it takes rates to their highest level since November 2011. The Aussie rose to 70.18 US cents on the announcement and then slipped back to 69.93 during Governor Michele Bullock's press conference. That fits the pattern for a well-telegraphed hike: the rate went up, but nothing in the statement or the press conference committed the Board to a fifth move in November.

This post began as a preview of the decision. It has been updated with the outcome. Below: what the statement actually said, how the guidance wording changed, why the currency's move ran against the "hawkish" headline, and which data now decides November.

What actually happened

The Board's statement opened with the decision to "increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60 per cent" and closed with "Today's policy decision was unanimous." In between, it gave its reasons in a handful of lines:

• Inflation: "Inflation remains elevated and some of the upside risks flagged in August are materialising."
• Energy: "The conflict in the Middle East has broadened and global energy prices are now much higher than had been assumed in the August forecasts."
• Pricing behaviour: "Liaison indicates that firms are experiencing cost pressures and are either increasing the prices of their goods and services or looking to do so."
• Growth: output "has slowed but, at the margin, was stronger than expected in the June quarter."
• Housing: "Housing prices have fallen in most capital cities and new housing loans have declined noticeably."
• Labour: conditions "have eased broadly as expected in recent months."

The labour sentence matters most for reading the decision. Before the meeting, the main argument for holding was that unemployment had risen to 4.6% in August. The Board treated that rise as part of its plan, not a reason to stop. It said the labour market eased "as expected", which is consistent with Bullock's 22 September remark that unemployment "between 4.5 and 5" is what it takes to cool inflation.

The housing sentence is the new part. It is the first time this year the statement has flagged falling prices and falling loan approvals together. That became the main theme of the press conference.

The press conference: why the Aussie reversed

According to ABC News, the Australian dollar rose to 70.18 US cents after the 2:30pm announcement. It then fell to 69.93 US cents during Bullock's press conference an hour later. The ASX 200 closed 0.3% higher at 8,709.

Three parts of the press conference explain the reversal.

The Board weighed holding. Bullock said falling house prices had caused the Board to "think and pause" before raising rates, and she named the housing market as one of the downside risks it discussed. The decision was unanimous, but the case for the hike was not presented as one-sided.

There was no commitment on November. Asked whether more increases were coming, the Governor said the Board has "got to see how these four interest rate rises feed through." With pricing for November near even odds going in, a response like that gives the market no reason to add to it.

On recession, she offered no reassurance and no warning. Asked whether the Bank might need to push the economy into recession to control inflation, she said "I hope it's not needed." She added that it becomes a possibility if inflation expectations "get away from us." That answer neither ruled a recession in nor out.

How September became a priced meeting

In August the Board held unanimously. The minutes recorded that "several members judged that it was quite possible that the upside risks to the inflation forecast would crystallise, requiring some further tightening." We covered that meeting in our August RBA post. The data the Board said it would wait for then arrived:

The July CPI (ABS, 26 August) did most of the work. Headline inflation fell, but the trimmed mean, which is the measure the Board steers by, held at 3.6%. Housing costs rose 5.0% over the year, and fuel jumped 7.5% in the month. By the Board's parliamentary hearing on 18 September, ABC News put pricing for a September hike at 95%. After the August labour force report (ABS, 24 September), it was about 90%.

What the outcome means for AUD through the five factors

Interest rates. At 4.60%, the cash rate is further above the US target range of 3.75–4.00%, which the Federal Reserve set on 16 September (see our Fed, BoE and BoJ post). The level of the differential was mostly priced before Tuesday. What moves the currency from here is how the expected paths shift on each side. For the RBA that means November. For the Fed it means Friday's payrolls.

Growth. The statement's housing line is a growth signal as much as an inflation one. Falling prices and falling loan approvals are how higher rates reach household spending. They are also why the Board described itself as pausing to think. Q2 GDP grew 0.4% (ABS, 2 September). That was firm enough to allow a hike, and the housing data now tempers it.

Commodities. Energy was the stated trigger. The statement says the Middle East conflict "has broadened." Bullock said at the press conference that the shock has "made us all poorer." Higher oil works against Australia in two ways. It lifts imported inflation, which pushes toward tighter policy. It also squeezes household real incomes, which pushes the other way. For how oil has moved this week, see our post on the weekend jump in crude. For the broader commodity channel, see what drives the Australian dollar.

Risk sentiment. The Aussie is still a high-beta currency to global equities. A local ASX gain of 0.3% on the day did little for it. Global risk appetite, which is driven by energy and US rates, tends to matter more for AUD than the domestic decision once that decision is priced.

Positioning. When a hike is this well priced, the post-decision move usually shows up in pricing for the next meeting rather than in the currency's level. Tuesday's round trip from 70.18 to 69.93 fits that pattern.

What decides November

• The August monthly CPI, Wednesday 30 September. The Board hiked without it. A second unchanged trimmed mean would support pricing for November. A clear fall would weaken it.
• The minutes, due two weeks after the meeting. They will show how close the Board came to holding, and whether any members argued that 4.60% is enough.
• September labour force (mid-October) and the September quarter CPI (late October). Both land before the November meeting, which also brings the first new forecasts since August. HSBC's Paul Bloxham expects the next increase after that quarterly CPI print.
• Housing. The statement now gives weight to falling prices and falling loans. Further declines strengthen the case for a pause.
• The US side. September payrolls on Friday 2 October feed Fed pricing. AUD/USD responds to the gap between the two paths, not to either one alone.

For the longer background on how the Bank reads inflation, see Australian inflation, the RBA and the dollar. For more on how we build these notes, see about pip theory.

Educational macro context only — not investment advice.