A $105.5bn NII Guide With $50.9bn Booked (JPMorgan Earnings Preview, 13 October 2026): What to Expect From Q3 — and How the Fed's Hike Reaches a Bank's Income

JPMorgan Chase reports third-quarter results before the US open on Tuesday, 13 October 2026, opening the bank earnings season. Consensus is about $5.9 a share against $5.07 a year ago. The number that decides how the quarter reads is net interest income: the bank has guided to about $105.5bn for 2026 after booking $50.9bn in the first half, which needs a materially stronger second half — and September's Fed hike is the mechanism meant to deliver it.

When JPMorgan reports, and why it goes first

JPMorgan releases results before the market opens on Tuesday, 13 October, with its call at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report the same morning; Bank of America and Morgan Stanley follow on 14 October.

The banks report first because their quarter is the easiest to close and because they see the economy from more angles than any other sector: deposits, consumer card spending, corporate lending, bond and equity trading, and mergers. JPMorgan is the largest of them. Its results are read not only as one company's quarter but as the first full-quarter evidence on how the US economy handled a rate hike.

That context is unusual this year. The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75–4.00% at its 15–16 September meeting, and the 10-year Treasury yield then climbed to 5.28% by 2 October (see the Fed minutes preview). Reuters reported this week that the KBW Bank Index is down 13% from its August peak close. Higher rates help a bank in one place and hurt it in several others. Tuesday is the first chance to see which effect is larger.

What JPMorgan guided — and what the first half left to do

JPMorgan's second-quarter release on 14 July and the accompanying presentation set the targets the bank will be measured against. The table places them beside the first half and the year-ago quarter:

Sources: JPMorgan Q3 2025 and Q2 2026 earnings releases and supplements; consensus from published estimate sets.

Two things stand out. First, the net interest income guide is back-loaded. Second-quarter reported NII was $25.5bn. To reach about $105.5bn for the year, the bank needs an average of roughly $27.3bn in each of the last two quarters. That is a large step up for a balance sheet of this size, and it depends on rates, deposit costs and loan growth all moving in the bank's favour.

Second, the consensus EPS of about $5.9 sits below both the first quarter's $5.94 and the second quarter's $6.14 excluding one-off gains. Analysts are already expecting a quarter that is stronger than a year ago but softer than the spring.

How a Fed hike reaches a bank's income

Net interest income is the difference between what a bank earns on its loans and securities and what it pays on deposits and other funding. A rate hike works on both sides, at different speeds.

On the asset side, a large share of JPMorgan's loans and cash holdings reprice quickly. Card balances, floating-rate corporate loans and the cash the bank keeps at the Federal Reserve start earning more almost as soon as the policy rate rises. On the liability side, deposit rates usually lag. Many customers leave money in accounts paying little, and banks raise deposit rates only when competition forces them to. The gap between those two speeds is the source of the income boost.

The lag does not last indefinitely. If savers move money into Treasury bills or money-market funds paying over 4%, the bank must pay more to keep them, and the benefit narrows. Reuters reported that investors will be looking specifically for signs that the yield spike has raised deposit costs. Tuesday's number to read is NII excluding Markets, because trading-desk interest income moves for different reasons. In the second quarter that line was $23.7bn, up 4%, with growth in deposits and loans "largely offset by the impact of lower rates" from earlier cuts. If the hike has turned that into a tailwind, it should show up in this line first. Whether management keeps, raises or trims the $105.5bn guide is the single most informative output of the call.

Dealmaking and trading: up on last year, down on the spring

At the Barclays financial services conference on 15 September, co-president Doug Petno said JPMorgan expected third-quarter investment banking fees and markets revenue to rise by a "mid-to-high teens" percentage from a year earlier. Bank of America's chief executive Brian Moynihan had said the previous day that his bank's investment banking fees would fall at least 10%, with sales and trading revenue flat.

The year-ago base makes Petno's guidance concrete. Mid-to-high-teens growth on $2.6bn of investment banking fees points to roughly $3.0bn to $3.1bn; on $8.9bn of markets revenue, roughly $10.2bn to $10.5bn. Both are higher than a year ago. Both are also clearly below the second quarter, when investment banking fees were $3.3bn and markets revenue a record $12.1bn, driven by an 86% jump in equity trading.

Since that guidance, conditions have changed. Reuters reported that surging bond yields contributed to IPO cancellations late in September, naming smart-ring maker Oura and AI data-centre developer SB Energy among the deals delayed. Guidance given on 15 September could not fully reflect the last two weeks of the quarter. A fee number at the low end of the range, or cautious comments on the fourth-quarter pipeline, would be the first hard evidence that higher yields are slowing capital-markets activity.

The consumer line: credit cards

The third area is credit quality, and it matters beyond JPMorgan. The Card Services net charge-off rate — the share of card balances written off as unrecoverable — was 3.34% in the second quarter, against a full-year guide of about 3.2% and 3.15% a year earlier. A full-year rate of 3.2% after a second quarter at 3.34% implies the rate needs to ease in the second half.

Charge-offs lag the economy. They rise months after household finances weaken, which is why the provision for credit losses — money set aside for future losses — is the more forward-looking line. In the second quarter JPMorgan built reserves by $149m, mostly in wholesale lending. A larger reserve build on Tuesday, particularly in the consumer book, would signal that the bank's own models now see more stress ahead. With payrolls up just 29,000 in the latest report, that line has more weight than usual.

Three scenarios for Tuesday

These describe what each outcome would mean, not which one will happen.

1. NII guide held or raised, fees in range, credit stable. The rate hike is visibly lifting income faster than deposit costs, dealmaking held up through September, and card losses are steady. That would support the view that the US economy is absorbing higher rates, and that the banking system is benefiting from them rather than straining under them.

2. EPS near $5.9, but the NII guide trimmed. If deposit costs have risen faster than expected, or loan growth slowed, management may cut the full-year NII figure even on an in-line quarter. In that case the forward information is in the guidance, not the headline: it would suggest the funding side of the hike is arriving sooner than the asset side.

3. Fees miss and reserves rise. Investment banking below the guided range, cautious pipeline commentary and a larger reserve build. The read-through would extend to every bank reporting that week and to the wider question of whether the yield spike has started to slow the economy through credit and capital markets rather than only through mortgage rates.

Where this touches what you trade

US500 and the earnings-led market. The S&P 500's earnings yield has already caught up with the 10-year Treasury yield (see the earnings-yield note). When the valuation cushion is that thin, the index relies on earnings growth rather than a rising multiple, and the bank results are the first large block of third-quarter earnings to arrive. Financials are one of the largest sectors in the index, and a guide change from JPMorgan typically moves the rest of the sector on the same day.

Rates and the dollar. The four lines above — net interest income, deposit costs, dealmaking and credit — together describe how the economy is handling a Fed that is still hiking. A strong set of bank numbers fits a US economy that can carry higher rates; that is consistent with the rate-differential support the US dollar has drawn from the hike. A weak set, especially rising reserves, would point to the slowdown that rate markets would then start to price as cuts. Interest rates and growth are two of the five factors the meter reads for each currency.

The yield spike itself. Banks are where higher Treasury yields bite directly: through the value of bond holdings, the cost of deposits and the appetite for new deals. Comments on any of these from JPMorgan's management will be read across every lender, and across the question of whether 5%-plus long-term yields are sustainable for the wider economy.

The line to take into Tuesday: the headline EPS will probably land close to $5.9 either way. Check net interest income excluding Markets against the $96.5bn guide, then the investment banking fee number against the $3.0bn to $3.1bn range Petno's guidance implies. Together they show whether the hike is working for the banks or against them.

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Educational macro context only — not investment advice.