The five factors
Interest Rates
+2
Growth
+4
Positioning
+31
Risk Mood
-26
Model versus price
{'state': 'inline', 'label': 'Broadly in line', 'detail': 'No strong divergence: the +4 fundamental read and the +1.2% three-month move on a trade-weighted basis are roughly consistent.'}
The readings behind it
| Indicator | Latest | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Short-term rate | 3.88% | 2026-10-08 |
| Real rate (after inflation) | +0.17% (3.7% CPI) | 2026-10-08 |
| 10-year yield | 5.22% | 2026-10-08 |
| Real 10-year (after inflation) | +1.51% (3.7% CPI) | 2026-10-08 |
| Unemployment | 4.2% | 2026-09-01 |
| Fund positioning | 62th pctile | derived |
| 3-month move vs USD | +1.2% | None |
| Valuation (vs 1-yr norm) | stretched / expensive | None |
Strength gap against the other majors
A positive gap means the US Dollar scores higher than the other side of the pair right now.