No Annual Rate This Time, 0.24%–0.3% Expected (US CPI Preview, 10 November 2026): What to Expect From October Inflation and What It Means for the Dollar
October CPI lands 10 November, 8:30 ET, with no 12-month rate: October 2025 was never collected. Forecasts see 0.24%–0.3% m/m. What it means for the dollar.
No Annual Rate This Time, 0.24%–0.3% Expected (US CPI Preview, 10 November 2026): What to Expect From October Inflation and What It Means for the Dollar
October's Consumer Price Index lands at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday 10 November, and the headline annual inflation rate will be missing: the Bureau of Labor Statistics never collected October 2025 prices, so it will not publish a 12-month change for the all-items or core index. Forecasts for the monthly change run from the Cleveland Fed's 0.24% headline and 0.21% core to RBC's 0.3% for both. With a December hike already priced at close to 80% after Friday's jobs beat, that one-tenth gap in core is the number that decides whether this report settles the Fed's next move or unsettles it.
- When. Tuesday 10 November, 8:30 a.m. ET — 13:30 UTC, 21:30 HKT. The last CPI before the Fed's 8–9 December decision.
- No 12-month rate. October 2025 prices were never collected during the shutdown, so BLS will not publish annual changes for indexes without an October 2025 value — including headline and core. September's 3.7% is the last official annual rate until next month.
- The forecasts. Cleveland Fed nowcast (6 Nov): headline +0.24%, core +0.21%. RBC Economics: headline and core +0.3%, citing energy spillover into core.
- Gasoline turned. EIA's weekly survey averaged about $4.31 in October against $4.355 in September — roughly −1% — after September's 9.1% jump in the CPI gasoline index.
- The setup. Payrolls rose 165,000 against 65,000 expected and unemployment fell to 4.1%. FedWatch odds of a December hike rose back toward 80%.
- See how the interest-rate factor is scoring the dollar against seven other currencies on the live meter.
When the report lands and why this one is different
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the October index at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday 10 November, according to its release schedule. With US daylight saving over since 1 November, that is 13:30 UTC, 13:30 in London and 21:30 in Hong Kong and Singapore. The November report follows on 10 December — one day after the Federal Open Market Committee announces its 8–9 December decision — which makes Tuesday's print the last full read on consumer prices the Committee gets before it votes.
What makes this release unusual is not the data it contains but the data it cannot contain. During the 2025 federal shutdown, the bureau did not collect CPI prices from 1 October through 12 November 2025, and it was unable to go back and collect them afterwards. It never issued an October 2025 CPI release. Its shutdown FAQ spells out the consequence a year later: for indexes where October 2025 data are unavailable, BLS will not publish 12-month percent changes for October 2026. In its tables, the missing figure appears as a dash, footnoted "Data unavailable due to the 2025 lapse in appropriations".
That covers the all-items index and the core index — the two annual numbers every screen normally leads with. The monthly changes, seasonally adjusted and not, are unaffected and will be published as usual. So will annual changes for any index the bureau did manage to publish for October 2025.
What the forecasts expect
| October 2026 CPI | September actual | Cleveland Fed nowcast (6 Nov) | RBC Economics |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline m/m, SA | +0.6% | +0.24% | +0.3% |
| Core m/m, SA | +0.3% | +0.21% | +0.3% |
| Headline y/y | 3.7% | 3.74% (model estimate) | Not forecast |
| Core y/y | 2.6% | 2.48% (model estimate) | Not forecast |
Sources: September actuals from the BLS September CPI release; nowcast from the Cleveland Fed; RBC from its 5 November US week-ahead note, which states plainly that it will not forecast a year-over-year figure because of the missing October 2025 data.
The table shows what the debate is really about. Everyone agrees the headline slows sharply from September's 0.6%, because the gasoline surge that drove September has partly reversed. The disagreement is over core, and it is a disagreement about mechanism, not rounding. The Cleveland Fed's nowcast is built largely from energy and recent trends; it sees core settling back near its earlier pace. RBC argues the opposite: that September's report "flagged early signs of an energy price spillover", with high oil costs feeding freight and core goods, and that firms protecting margins will push it through.
We previewed September's release in our September CPI note. The consensus then was a 0.2% core; it came in at 0.3%, after August's 0.29%. A third consecutive 0.3% would be hard to describe as noise.
The annual figures you will see anyway
Expect "annual inflation" numbers to circulate on Tuesday regardless. They will be estimates, and they will not agree with one another, because each one has to invent the missing October 2025 base:
- Model-based. The Cleveland Fed's nowcast shows 3.74% headline and 2.48% core on the year, using its own estimate of what October 2025 would have been.
- Averaged. Some analysts will compare October 2026 with the average of the September and November 2025 indexes — the same geometric-mean idea BLS used for seasonal adjustment.
- Carried forward. Others will treat October 2025 as if prices had not moved since September 2025.
Each method gives a slightly different answer, and a story built on "inflation rose to X%" may be comparing like with unlike. The useful habit for this one release is to ignore every annual headline and read the monthly change to two decimals. A rough translation helps: a 0.21% monthly core rate compounds to about 2.5% over a year, while 0.3% compounds to about 3.7%. That gap, not a reconstructed annual figure, is what the Fed is weighing.
Why the headline slows: gasoline turned in October
The Energy Information Administration's weekly retail survey makes the energy leg close to arithmetic. Regular gasoline averaged $4.355 a gallon across September's four readings, peaking at $4.478 in the week of 21 September. October's four readings — $4.354, $4.331, $4.284 and $4.269 — average about $4.31, a fall of roughly 1% on the month. The 2 November reading was $4.153, so November's energy leg is starting lower again.
In September, BLS said gasoline rose 9.1% and accounted for over half of the monthly all-items increase. Gasoline carries a weight of roughly 4% of the basket, so a swing from +9% to around −1% (before seasonal adjustment) is worth several tenths on the headline. That is why the headline forecast drops to 0.24%–0.3% even if core does not soften at all.
One caution: the CPI gasoline index is seasonally adjusted, and October's seasonal factors normally expect pump prices to fall. A raw decline of about 1% can therefore translate into a smaller decline, or even a small rise, in the adjusted series. Gasoline's own annual comparison is still enormous — EIA's October 2025 readings averaged about $3.06 — but whether that annual change appears in Tuesday's tables depends on whether BLS has an October 2025 gasoline index to compare against.
How the jobs report changed the starting point
Friday's employment report moved the bar the CPI has to clear. Nonfarm payrolls rose 165,000 in October against the 65,000 economists polled by Reuters had expected, the unemployment rate dipped to 4.1% from 4.2%, and September was revised up to a 60,000 gain, CNBC reported. Our jobs report preview argued the unemployment rate was the figure that could challenge a December hike; it moved the other way.
Markets responded through the front end of the curve. CME FedWatch odds of a December hike of at least a quarter point rose back toward 80%, from about 67% on Thursday. The two-year Treasury yield rose 5.5 basis points to 4.532%, and the dollar index gained 0.63% to 102.12 with the euro down to $1.1157 and the dollar up to ¥158.20.
The Fed's own position frames what CPI can still change. It raised the target range to 3.75%–4.00% on 16 September and held it on 28 October, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favour of another quarter-point increase, according to the Fed's statement. A Committee that already had two votes for a hike, now looking at a firm labour market, needs a reason not to move — and only a soft core reading can supply one.
Three scenarios and what each means for the dollar
The dollar connects to this report through the interest-rate factor, one of the five factors the meter scores across the eight majors. It reacts to changes in the expected policy path, and with December largely priced, the question shifts towards how much confidence attaches to it and whether a further increase follows in 2027.
| Scenario | Core m/m | What it changes | Dollar channel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Soft core | 0.2% or below | Supports the "energy passed through once" reading; gives the Committee a reason to wait | December odds fall back from near 80%; front-end yields ease; recent dollar gains are the most exposed |
| Firm core | ~0.3% | Third firm month after August and September; supports RBC's spillover case | Largely confirms December; attention moves to 2027 pricing and the December projections |
| Hot core | 0.4% or above | Suggests broadening rather than spillover | Front end reprices for more than one further hike; carry advantage widens most against low-yielders |
Two asymmetries matter. First, the soft scenario has more room to move prices than the firm one, because a firm print mostly confirms what Friday already priced. Second, the yen is where the rate channel works hardest. With the dollar near ¥158 and the Bank of Japan's December decision also in play, a wider US–Japan rate gap pushes on a pair that has already travelled a long way. The meter's dollar page, yen page and euro page show how each is scoring now.
For equities, the transmission is the discount rate. The Nasdaq fell 5.52% on 5 November as chip stocks sold off after the midterm result, as we covered in our note on that move. Long-duration growth stocks are the part of the US500 and NAS100 most sensitive to where yields settle, so a core surprise in either direction reaches them through the same two-year yield that moves the dollar.
What else to watch inside the report
- Core goods. RBC's spillover case runs through freight and goods prices. If core goods firm again while services hold steady, that supports the energy pass-through reading; if goods soften, the nowcast's view gains.
- Transport services and airfares. These carry fuel costs into core directly and were the clearest second-round lines in late summer.
- Shelter. It rose 0.4% in September. Shelter is slow-moving and sits outside the energy story, so a firm shelter reading makes a 0.3% core harder to dismiss.
- The dashes. Check which annual changes BLS does print. The handful of indexes that keep a 12-month comparison will get outsized attention simply because they are the only annual numbers in the release.
Bottom line
Tuesday's report will look strange: a headline monthly figure, no official annual rate, and a scatter of homemade annual estimates that do not match. The way through is to read the monthly core change to two decimals. Around 0.2% gives the Fed a reason to pause and tests the dollar's Friday gains; around 0.3% makes three firm months and leaves December close to settled. More on how we build these notes is on our about page.
Educational macro context only — not investment advice.